Oz Lotto Psychic Picks

Tomorrow night's $90 million OZ Lotto draw is generating almost as much news coverage as Michael Jackson's death. Okay, that's a slight exaggeration but it is getting mentioned a fair bit in the mainstream media - along with the usual supernatural silliness that journalists can't resist foisting on consumers.

Here's one of my favourite quotes so far, from The Daily Mail:

IF YOU believe in astrology, Librans and Scorpians have a better chance than others of winning it. If you believe in numerology, those who choose numbers divisible by three could get lucky.

But if you believe in mathematics, you are more likely to die in the 24 hours leading up to Tuesday night's $90 million Oz Lotto jackpot is drawn than actually win the prize.

I suspect that the vast majority of our population will have no problem believing at least some of the completely unfounded paranormal "statistics" in those statements (and in the remainder of the story) yet will strongly doubt the calculated mathematical probability.

On the question of completely unfounded paranormal "statistics", otherwise known as wild-arsed guesses, the Mail quotes Milton Black:

Numerologist, astrologist and psychic Milton Black said Tuesday night's jackpot was definitely going to go off and would probably be shared rather than a single person win.

As I'll discuss a bit later, there's probably a 5:1 chance of a win - that means five people could win based on statistical chance alone. Chance doesn't care about your star sign (who does really?) or your perverse interest in certain numbers. So, a multiple win is not paranormal, it's virtually expected.

With the draw falling on the 30th he says numbers that are values of three could come up.

With 45 numbers to choose from, there are 15 numbers that fit that bill. I agree that numbers that are values of three could come up - but which numbers?!!! I also think that numbers that are values of two could come up. Let's see who does better.

"Three also connects well with 12 and 8," he said. "On the astrological aspect, the moon is on the rise so it's obviously going to go off.

I have no idea why three connects with eight but if Milton says so, it must be true. I assume he's actually picking 12 and 8 as two definite possible maybes. Will the top prize "obviously" go off? Not necessarily but the odds will be high with an anticipated one in three Australian adults participating (Perth's Channel Seven News estimate 2/3 of Perth adults will play) - each buying multiple games. Using an estimated $250 million spend this week, there will be almost 230 million games in play. With a one in 45 million chance of winning we should, theoretically, see around five winners - based purely on probability and nothing else.

"I'd say people born in the months of January, March, May, July, September and November have a good chance of winning because the moon of that month is going to be in a good aspect of the month."

Wow, that's a genuine skill Milton has there. Apparently half the people ever born are in with a chance. Of course, it's unlikely we'll ever find out the birth details of the winners so we won't know how accurate this astonishingly detailed prediction is.

But Mr Milton said the moon is moving into Libra on Tuesday night, which is a good sign.

For who? Someone? I suspect he might be right. My neighbour is moving into a new house tomorrow - I think someone will do well in Lotto.

"There could even be some Librans or Scorpians who could benefit greatly out of OzLotto," he said.

Okay, so we can add October to the already long list of likely winners. That's seven out of twelve months covered so Milton's odds of getting something right are astronomically (or is that astrologically) higher than the odds of winning Lotto. But he did say it's only a "good chance" for the first six months he mentioned. In reality, your chances are about one in 45 million for each $1.10 you spend. Milton says those born in October "could benefit greatly" - this could just mean you might win $20, which is a lot greater than nothing.

Oh, but what happens if you are a September Libran, which should give you very good odds, but you choose numbers not divisible by three? He doesn't say. Which is better, astrology or numerology - and, if he's psychic, why does he need those other things at all? Why doesn't he just tell us who's going to win and what numbers they'll choose? I mean, if he said I was going to win (he'd have to name me and publicly guarantee to cover the winnings if he gets it wrong), I'd go and buy a ticket with the numbers he says.

But he's so vague and casts such a wide net of possibilities - all based on absolutely nothing it seems - as to be completely useless as a source of advice. When you sum it all up, it's almost like he said "a human might win". One wonders why the Mail bothered with him.

The Mail later quotes mathematician Dr David Warton, who illustrates the odds with alarming clarity, then seeks opinion from a Lotteries spokesman who seems somewhat less familiar with statistics and probabilities:

But NSW Lotteries spokesman John Vineburg said many experts called upon at times like this purporting to be the "voice of reason" sometimes go too far. He said about 200 people pick up first division prizes throughout the country each year.

"I haven't seen figures saying that 200 people around Australia are killed by lightning or taken by sharks," he said.

What Mr Vineburg seems to be forgetting is that there are a number of Lottos to participate in and many, perhaps most, participants play multiple games in each one and often participate not only as individuals and families but in work and other communal syndicates. There were 79 million entries in last week's Oz Lotto alone - from a total population (men, women and children) of just over 20 million people. Then there's Lotto, Oz Lotto, two Mid-week Lottos and Powerball to choose from and jackpots sell even more games than usual.

When mathematicians quote the odds as one in 45 million, they quite obviously mean per individual game played (7 numbers per game for Oz Lotto), not per person. Obviously someone who plays ten games reduces their odds by a factor of ten to one in 4.5 million.

Anyway, in the interests of performing a small test, I've gathered some "predictions" from various sources to see how they perform tomorrow night:

• D: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
  
• S: 29, 5, 13, 22, 25, 31, 45
  
• W: 19, 28, 7, 9, 15, 32, 45
  
• R: 17, 23, 30, 34, 29, 1, 15
  
• P: 2, 11, 17, 22, 25, 29, 43
  

The odds for each game in the list, even the first (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7), is 1:45,000,000.

I'll add a special entry for Milton Black:

• M: 3, 6, 8, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 30, 33, 36, 39, 42, 45

Each of those numbers fits Milton's vague prediction of "8" and numbers divisible by three. As you can probably see, he's basically cheated by ticking far too many boxes for a normal game (the rest of us only get to choose seven numbers). With 16 numbers, he's more than doubled his odds (EDIT: Myriad at JREF advises Milton's odds drop to just one in 4000 with a 96% chance of getting at least one number right based just on normal odds!) but let's see how it goes tomorrow anyway, just for fun.

I'll reveal the source of any strong performer(s) sometime after the draw.


If you care, here's how the odds are calculated:

In Oz Lotto there are 45 numbers to choose from and you need seven numbers to win. So, there are 45 choices for the first of seven numbers (45/7). Next, there are 44 choices left for the remaining 6 numbers (44/6). This continues until you have only one number left to choose and there will be 39 numbers left to choose from for that spot (39/1). To calculate the odds, you multiply all these fractions together:

(45/7)*(44/6)*(43/5)*(42/4)*(41/3)*(40/2)*(39/1)

This gives us 45,379,620 odds against you winning with one game.


LINKS:

Some interesting statistics
Australian Lottery Odds


Disclaimer: I'm not a mathematician. If you see an obvious error, let me know asap. Also, apologies if things were abit broken as you read the article - I keep editing it.

Articles and images on this blog are nothing more than satirical commentary based on the honest opinion of the author. No one should use this blog as the sole basis for forming an opinion on the subjects discussed but readers are welcome to consider these opinions in light of similar or contrary information available elsewhere. I advise skepticism regarding my own commentary just as I advise it with regards to the subjects discussed here. If I can get you to take nothing at face value, I've done my job.